Florida vs. California: Do lockdowns work? - WZVN-TV

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SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. – ABC7 is trying to answer a question many are asking one year after coronavirus lockdowns first started — Do they work?

Governor Ron Desantis has said no. Other governors, like California’s Gavin Newsome, have taken a more strict approach. Despite the major differences, the case numbers are similar.

“If you look at the mortality rate per 100,000, it’s essentially a dead heat,” said Dr. Victor Clarr, a professor of economics at Florida Gulf Coast University.

We’re looking at figures in that way (per 100,000) to take population differences into account between Florida and California.

Right now in Florida, that number is at 8,700 per 100,000 people

In California, there are 8,900 cases per 100,000 people

California was one of the first to impose stay-at-home orders. Florida and many others followed.

Governor DeSantis announcing his Safer At Home order on April 1, 2020.

This time last year, restaurants across Florida heard two unfamiliar words – takeout only. It wasn’t a suggestion, rather a government order to slow the spread of COVID-19.

“I thought it would end up being two or three weeks and it ended up being months,” said Betsy Barnwell, the owner of Farmer’s Market Restaurant in Fort Myers.

Farmer’s Market Restaurant is the oldest restaurant still open in Lee County. It’s survived a devastating fire and Hurricane Irma – but nothing compares to this pandemic.

The restaurant is a place with many regulars where the staff is more like family.

“I’ve worked here since before I was 18, so I grew up here you know. It’s like a second home to me,” said Farmer’s Restaurant employee, Jossilyn Campese.

During the governor’s ‘Safer at Home’ order, Campese was out of work, unable to go to that second home of hers.

Safer At Home Executive Order by Kyra Shportun on Scribd

It was the new reality for many who lost their jobs, and for her, it couldn’t have come at a scarier time.

“I had just bought a house, my very first house, me and my fiancé,” she said.

Farmer’s Market Restaurant had to pivot to serving food curbside to go, so Barnwell simply couldn’t keep everyone.

“I had 30 employees and I went down to five,” she said.

The fortunate news for Florida workers – most shutdowns only lasted a couple of months.

“I think we can be really thankful that at this point we’re quite comparable to California and we’ve been far less restrictive,” said Dr. Claar.

But back in the beginning, no one knew how the pandemic would play out, not even health experts.

“I think this is going to be an example of ‘how do we handle that moving forward?’ What do we know?’ Science has made great strides in the last year learning about the COVID-19 virus,” said Robert Hawkes, the director of FGCU’s Physician Assistant Program.

They say hindsight is 2020 and the year 2020 was all about what seemed best at the time. Until doctors learned more about the virus, the health and safety of entire communities seemed at stake and there’s still a big threat for large parts of the population.

“And we’ve realized that some regulations aren’t as effective as we thought,” Dr. Claar said.

While it can seem simple to compare cases and strategies state-to-state, there are many variables to consider.

“How old the residents are, how densely populated the urban centers are. Florida and California are not identical,” Dr. Claar said.

Looking at case numbers alone, it appears lockdowns didn’t slow the spread as much as experts hoped they would.

From March to May, during Florida’s two-month ‘Safer-at-home’ order, cases kept climbing.

Both Florida and California saw major spikes during the summer after leaders of both states started easing up restrictions. The difference between the two was that California and several other states closed back down.

Even with the different approaches heading into the fall of 2020, in both California and Florida, the case numbers continued to soar.

“What I felt was nice about Florida, was that as a business owner, I can do what I want to do to be responsible. If my customers would be comfortable with masks, and 50 percent capacity, then that’s what I’m going to do,” Barnwell said.

In many California counties, indoor dining just reopened this week at 25 percent capacity.

“Hopefully by summer the population will have availability to the vaccine. That’s really going to be the big piece to get us to the end,” Hawkes said.

There’s still a lot to learn to really answer the question of whether lockdowns work, but there’s one thing we do have that we didn’t 365 days ago – knowledge about COVID-19.

“We certainly understand it more. We were able to document it and that will certainly help scientists for whenever the next virus comes about,” Hawkes said.

Even though Florida businesses didn’t have to shut down as long as they did in other states, the losses are still devastating.

Researchers at FGCU have found that taxable sales for restaurants, lunchrooms and catering service businesses were down 15.7 percent in Southwest Florida for the first 10 months of 2020 compared to the first 10 months of 2019.

Taxable Sales in Southwest Florida by Kyra Shportun on Scribd

In another study the university did, 90.4 percent of hospitality businesses surveyed reported a decrease in sales revenue, with 48 percent of businesses reporting decreases of over 50 percent. Of those businesses, 88 percent also reported a decrease in customer demand.

FGCU Coronavirus Economic Impact Survey by Kyra Shportun on Scribd

Barwell said with more people getting vaccinated, she’s just now welcoming some regulars back who were still staying cautious. She’s happy to have most of her staff back on board, but the business that’s been in her family for decades has still lost a lot of money because of the pandemic.

“I could tell you it was probably almost $1 million,” she said.

From helping her employees try to apply for unemployment and pivoting to curbside pickup to now staying strict on certain precautions, Barnwell said she’s been doing everything she can to keep her business’ doors open for good.

“The oldest restaurant in Lee County is not going to shut down on my watch,” she said.

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Florida vs. California: Do lockdowns work? - WZVN-TV
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